安華雞姦案速讀

安華遭男助理指控雞姦疑雲讓我們霧裡看花。陰謀論、爆內幕等的新聞處理讓我們有些疲累。前天我用電郵專訪了新加坡東南亞研究院院士，黃基明博士來談談當今的時勢，看看學者們如何用理性的角度去解讀這課題。

現在焦點都兜轉在安華身上，早前阿都拉受促下台的呼聲又過眼雲煙了。那麼，阿都拉幾時會下台呢？黃基明認為首相阿都拉可能會繼續呆在位子上，甚至留任1年至2年。

而隨著欽點接班人副首相納吉又再次陷入蒙古女郎案的旋渦中，看起來阿都拉將是繼續在位的最佳人選，即使大馬面對著外圍世界的外患時顯得有些欲振乏力，但政治演變將騎劫了所有人的注意力。

安華的雞姦疑云已開始掀起滾雪球效應，那幾時會掀起骨牌效應？我們還有很多疑問，包括逼在眼前的9月16日，安華早前已宣稱排隊當首相了。但如今是否成行？

『1. How do you feel when you first heard of the latest sodomy accusation again?

My reaction to the news was: Oh no, not again. When I wrote that the system is bankrupt of ideas in an article last year, I didn't realise how right I was.

2. Would your think that the sodomy charge is politically motivated and persecute Anwar politically?

The thing is, we will never know. The way politics is played in MAlaysia, all the institutions command very little credibility, so how are we to believe anything that is said about the subject.

3. Now we see emerging conspiracy theory and who is behind this getting more speculations. What do you see this accusation would affect Abdullah’s weakening government, Najib and Anwar personally?

The thing is, this will not hurt the government more than the elections had done. Voters showed that there was a crisis of confidence in the government, and that power had gone to the heads of BN's leadership.

For the voters, this is further proof that they were right in voting so strongly to teach the government a lesson. It also shows the government has not learned its lesson.It will instead hurt Anwar and PR.

PKR is unlike DAP and PAS in the sense that the latter two gained more than they ever hoped was possible, so they are happy to merely consolidate their power for the time being, and watch UMNO disintegrate.

PKR and Anwar, despite winning so much, have ambitions of taking over the federal government. DAP and PAS feel that PKR is moving too fast, and wanting too much too soon, and that, in their minds, would be why BN and UMNO, who are still in power -- let us not forget that -- are hitting back at Anwar now.

4. Do you think it would giving any impact on Abdullah “retiring” plan which seemingly will be last in office till year end?

No, no impact. I suspect that his retirement plan will be to stay as president even after December, and then, in a year or two, he will retire. This will hurt UMNO least, the supreme council would be thinking.

5. Police force has promised to conduct investigation, while the gossip story coming around the society. What would be the best way for the BN government to do, to minimize its impact?

The government should keep out of it, and if anything, they should make it clear to the police, who are used to looking for hints from their political masters, that they should merely follow the law.

6. Do you think this sort of dissatifaction sense from DAP and PAS, would affect PR's synergy and co-operation? Is this serve as a acid test for PR since it has been labelled as "pact of convenience" or shotgun Marriage"?

What has happened has caught DAP and PAS by surprise. Apparently, Anwar was planning to move against the govt when the report against him was mad. at the same time, he was warned that he was to be attacked.

The DAP and PAS think it best to say as little as possible. the dissatisfaction with the speed of things is not strong enough for PR to break apart, especially if they think that BN is resorting to unconstitutional and illegal means to get what its wants. They will read it as BN becoming desperate, and that PR must stick together now more than ever.

DAP and PAS know that without Anwar, PR may very well disappear, so they will support him for as long as possible.

7. By the way, don't you think Anwar's sodomy charge will adding to his popularity & appeal to the masses? He surely can gains some political mileage and get some sympathy votes while defending himself..

For the Malaysian public, the sodomy case will just be one more example of the decadent style of governance that UMNO is now associated with, so yes, Anwar will gain sympathy and support because of it.』